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灰色系统理论在汇率预测中的应用

消耗积分:3 | 格式:rar | 大小:344 | 2010-01-03

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本文用灰色预测方法,建立了外汇汇率预测的GM(1,1)预测模型,并在此基础上建立了基于灾变灰色预测理论的灰色预测与回归预测的组合模型,分别对外汇汇率进行了实证预测,均在中短期预测中取得较好效果,并对模型的适用性进行了分析。
关键字: 汇率、灰色预测、GM(1,1)
An application of grey forecasting model
for foreign exchange rate analysis
Abstract
In this paper,GM(1,1) forecasting model is established to analysis foreign exchange rate  by using  grey forecasting model.Then a disaster forecasting model combined with GM(1,1) and linear method is established based on it. And both get good forecasting results in the short-term forecasting in an example. At last, making a analysis about this model’s suitable scope. 
Key words: foreign exchange rate, grey forecasting model, GM(1,1),disaster forecasting

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